It’s that time of year again… the great time when we all go ga-ga over the start of the NFL season. This is my favorite time of year… fantasy league drafts are all over by now, roto leagues are kicking in… and it’s the number one betting season is about to kick in high gear. Husbands get yard work and errands wrapped up on Saturday to plant their rears in front of the TV for 12 hours on Sunday… opening day!
While I won’t lay the cash on games, I have decided to put my picks out there for all to see. My fellow shaved-head blogger Joel and I have come to a bit of a challenge… we’re posting our preseason picks as well as our weekly picks… against the spread AND the over/under. Each week I’ll post my picks… no later than the start of the first game (Joel says Thursday, I’m not that optimistic). After each week, I’ll keep a running tally of my score… who will dominate? We shall see…
Over/Under Total Team Wins
So what are you looking at below. I’ll save some space and tell you to go read Joel’s explanation. The short answer is you pick if the team is going to win more (over) or less (under) wins than the posted line. For example, Jacksonville is 8.5… so if I think they’ll win 9 or more games, I’ll go with the over. Now, the picks!
- Arizona Cardinals - 7.5 (O -137 / U +125): This team is the 2000’s version of the 1980’s and 90’s Saints… they never really win. I’ll give them 2 more wins than last season (6) with a stable QB and healthy receivers.
- Atlanta Falcons - 9.5 (O +114 / U -125): No receivers, but a great ground attack. Vick is still the biggest “fools take” early in a fantasy draft. I bet you my Tom Brady pick in the 7th round will get more points than the 5th round Vick pick this year). Count me as a non-believer… I’ll take the under.
- Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 (O -135 / U +123): NINE? uh, count me as a non-believer in Kyle Boller. Mark my words, he won’t be a Raven next year. Defense can only do so much, and this division is more competitive with Cincy as an up-and-comer.
- Buffalo Bills - 8.5 (O + 138 / U -150): Better team that last year… I’m giving them at least what they did last year (9).
- Carolina Panthers - 9.5 (O +106 / U -116): I hate platoon backfields, but this is better than last year’s team. But 10 wins or 3 wins better? Tough call here, but I won’t give them 10 wins.
- Chicago Bears - 6.5 (O -108 / U -102): This team is BAD… real BAD.
- Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 (O -197 / U +179): Palmer will have a good year… this team is better than last year’s 8 wins.
- Cleveland Browns - 4.5 (O -120 / U +110): Who’s the worst team… Cleveland? Chicago? Or San Fran?
- Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 (O -117 / U +107): Good ground game, good receivers, and probably the best fit for Bledsoe… but 9 wins? Against my better judgment…
- Denver Broncos - 8.5 (O -132 / U +120): Like by the Snake, die by the Snake. I say die… this division is WAY too good for this team to be considered above 3rd place at best in their division.
- Detroit Lions - 8.5 (O +135 / U -147)
- Green Bay Packers - 7.5 (O -107 / U -103)
- Houston Texans - 7.5 (O +128 / U -139)
- Indianapolis Colts - 11.5 (O -128 / U +128): Preseason saying a team will get 12+ wins? Not AC!
- Jacksonville Jaguars - 8.5 (O -107 / U -103): Homer pick, but I think they are better than last year.
- Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 (O -177 / U +164): Tight division!
- Miami Dolphins - 5.5 (O -145 / U +133): Last season they had no Ricky and managed 4 wins. Ricky is worth more than 2 wins… not to mention a new coach.
- Minnesota Vikings - 9.5 (O -121 / U +110): NEVER, NEVER bet on Mike Tice. But they are a better team without Moss and had a good defensive draft.
- New England Patriots - 10.5 (O -128 / U +117): Don’t bet against the Pats… not yet… Tom Brady just wins.
- New Orleans Saints - ?: I can’t find a book with a line on them. No surprise as the location of many games is up in the air. I only hope they get a 10 win season for the city.
- New York Giants - 6.5 (O -160 / U +140): Better team than last year.
- New York Jets - 9.5 (O +153 / U -165)
- Oakland Raiders - 7.5 (O -136 / U +125): I just broke my own rule… never bet on the Raiders… they ALWAYS screw you.
- Philadelphia Eagles - 11.5 (O +135 / U -146): Creampuff division… only reason I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt.
- Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 (O -126 / U +116): Big Ben has a better season statistically, but the team doesn’t get 15 wins again… MAYBE 12.
- St. Louis Rams - 8.5 (O -136 / U +124): Mike Marts is like Mike Tice… they hold the joint patent on the most incredibly stupid plays I’ve ever seen called. With that being said, quite a few weapons on this team, but it’s no different than last year (8).
- San Diego Chargers - 8 (O -154 / U +142): Fall off from the magical season of last year… but still a solid team *IF* Brees doesn’t have a 1 year hit.
- San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 (O +118 / U -130): They aren’t even going to get 5 wins? That’s hard to see, but I’m buying!
- Seattle Seahawks - 8.5 (O -143 / U +130): I love this team… but not in week 1… GO JAGS!
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 (O -199 / U +185)
- Tennessee Titans - 6.5 (O +113 / U -125): This is one of the worst teams in the league.
- Washington Redskins - 7.5 (O +125 / U -137): Ramsey is NOT the answer. Portis is another product of the system. Denver backs are crazy to ever leave.
Now that the season picks are over with, onto the post season:
- AFC East: New England
- AFC North: Pittsburgh
- AFC South: Indy
- AFC West: San Diego
- Wild Card: Jacksonville
- Wild Card: NY Jets
- Wild card week: Jacksonville over San Diego & Indy over NY Jets
- Divisional week: New England over Jacksonville & Indy over Pittsburgh
AFC Championship: New England over Indy
NFC East: Philly
NFC North: Minnesota
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: Seattle
Wild Card: Green Bay
Wild Card: St. Louis
Wild card week: STL over Carolina & Seattle over Green Bay
Division Week: Philly over St. Louis & Seattle over Minnesota
NFC Chaptionship: Philly over Seattle
SuperBowl: New England over Philly
In one pool I’m in, I’ve already picked NE and Philly to be in the SuperBowl. However, I’m torn between Seattle, Philly, Carolina, and Minnesota. I get to change one team up to Week 10, which I may do, but for now, until I see the off-field antics spill onto the fields in Philly, I’m sticking with them.
I leave you with a quote from Bill Simmons (of ESPN2… if you’re a sports fan, you MUST read The Sports Guy aka Bill Simmons’ column weekly during the season). If you’re not familiar, DirecTV subscribers can get the NFL Sunday Ticket (basically all games on special channels). This year, they’ve added a package called Super Fan which includes a RedZone channel, mix channels with 8 games & box scores on ONE SCREEN, and the ability to watch game recaps in 30 min bites. I can’t wait… now onto Bill’s article:
The Jamba Juice Matcha Green Tea Blast Award for “Most Underrated Invention of 2005”How ‘bout DirecTV’s finally pushing it to another level? Not only do we have 100 HD games this season, not only is there a Red Zone channel (where they switch to games whenever somebody gets inside the 20) and an “Eight games at the same time” channel, but they’re even editing condensed versions of EVERY GAME into tidy 30-minute packages – just play after play after play after play … I mean, are they trying to end my marriage? Seriously, this could do it – this might be the final straw. Has anyone ever introduced the “It was DirecTV’s fault” defense in a California divorce hearing before? If so, could you send me the case number?
Is there a Florida precedet? Because Bill, I know what you mean!!!comments powered by Disqus