NFL 2005 Week 3 Picks

Thursday, September 22, 2005 5:26 PM
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Let’s hope week 3 is better than last week, the scene of a bloody crime… arg… last week goes down with my Week 6 back in the 2003 season as my worst week of NFL. I’ve always had trouble picking the O/U on games… but I decided to track it this year in my little AC vs. Ross competition. The number I’m really focusing on all year is my record ATS (against the spread). Sitting at 62.5% after week 1, I feel hard to 43.75% after a brutal week with my week 2, picking only 25% correctly.

  • Atlanta 24 vs. Buffalo 16 (-3) ( O/U): no spread or total score has been posted. I’ll take ATL if its within a 4pt spread and the under if it’s less than 43. I’m not drinking the Atlanta kool-aid with everyone else. Vick is good, but when his top receiving options are his tight end and running back, that’s not good. Buffalo is feeling “new QB” growing pains.
  • Carolina 24 (-3) vs. Miami 27 (37 O/U)
  • Cincinnati 24 (-3) vs. Chicago 7 (40 O/U): Is Chicago better than everyone gave them credit for? No… they just have a good defense that lets them hang around. Cincy on the other hand is the real deal this year with a great D and explosive offense.
  • Cleveland 6 vs. Indianapolis 13 (-13.5) (46.5 O/U)
  • Jacksonville 26 vs. New York Jets 20 (-2.5) (33.5 O/U): My favorite Martin is questionable and Chad’s arm against my Jags staunch D? I’ll take the points and my team… HOMER PICK!
  • New Orleans 16 vs. Minnesota 33 (-4) (44.5 O/U): The Saints are a better team, but three weeks on the road and with the Vikings backed into a corner and looking horrible. However, with everything the Saints have gone through, not to mention the historic horrible record of teams that play on Monday night and then have to travel the following week, I’ll take Minnesota reluctantly simply because of the history in the numbers. I can’t believe I’m betting on Mike Tice, a close second to Martz for the stupidest coach ever.
  • Oakland 20 vs. Philadelphia 23 (-7.5) (46.5 O/U): A shootout waiting to happen.
  • Tampa Bay 17 (-3) vs. Green Bay 16 (38 O/U): ONLY three points? Tampa outright, I’ll give 8, but since I have to only give 3, that’s what I’ll do :).
  • Tennessee 27 vs. St. Louis 31 (-6.5) (45.5 O/U): I’ll take Fisher and a decent defense against the insane mad scientist (Martz has already thrown the red “B.S.” flag on a kickoff!).
  • Arizona 12 vs. Seattle 37 (-6) (41.5 O/U): Seattle will win this outright, and by more than a TD.
  • Dallas 34 (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 31 (41 O/U)
  • New England 23 vs. Pittsburgh 20 (-3) (42 O/U): PIT is getting a lot of coverage for their performance last year, but keep in mind they didn’t have Dillon for that game. I’ll still take the Pats… esp with the loss last week as a 2-game slide just isn’t something I’d bet on with this team.
  • New York Giants 23 vs. San Diego 45 (-6) (42 O/U): San Diego is the best (Oakland being the second best) 0-2 team… Giants play on Sunday night
  • Kansas City 10 vs. Denver 30 (-3) (48.5 O/U): Finally, I get to watch a Monday night on the west coast (will be at the MVP Global Summit in Redmond, WA all week next week)!

Bets: +3 units CIN +3 units TEN+STL over (added 923) +3 units MIN (ONLY because numbers on post-MNF traveling teams are so compelling) +3 units 6pt teaser with INDY -7.5 & PHI -1.5 +3 units 6pt teaser with OAK +13.5, DAL -0.5, & SD pick-em

Odds (taken from a reputable online sportsbook but no juice): » straight wager = even money aka 100100 » 2 team 6pt teaser = even money aka 100100 » 3 team 6pt teaser = 1.5*wager aka 95

Week 3 results: 14-14 @ 50% = +10.5 units (no action weeks 1 & 2) » ATS: 9-5 @ 62.29% » O/U: 5-9 @ 35.71%Season to date results: 39-52-1 @ 39.68% = +10.5 units (no action weeks 1 & 2) » ATS: 23-23-0 @ 43.75% » O/U: 16-29-1 @ 35.56%

Previous week results: 1 | 2 | 3

[Updated 927 2p] Updated the results of my spread & over/under selections, as well as my wagers. Yet again my O/U performance (35.71%) is quite pathetic, yet I had a decent bounce-back for my picks ATS (62.29%), unfortunately still for the season I’m sub .500, but I’ll get back above. My target is 65% for the season (I can’t remember where I saw it, but I think the “acceptable” level is 61%). I’m never been as good with O/U picks as I think they are quite hard to determine, but the ATS picks are significantly easier for me to knock.

Now, if I was laying cash where my mouth is, I would have been up +10.5 units… a good week (or going 3-1… why don’t I post this above? For the gambling novicies out there, your win/loss record since you can weight your picks by varying your stake in your wage… such as my standard wager is 3 units, but I could go heavy such as +9 unitsor so).

Haven’t spent a ton of time trying to understand why INDY’s offense isn’t nearly as potent as last season, but it looks like my assumption that their breakout would be against the Browns’ defense wasn’t on target, yielding my single lost.

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